ECB raises key interest rates by 25 basis points

On 10 September 2026, the ECB Governing Council raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65% and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%, effective 16 September. The ECB cited persistent inflation pressures linked to the Middle East conflict and raised its 2027 and 2028 inflation projections compared with June.

• If the policy shift impacts US inflation, the US CPI release on 2026-10-14 should occur as scheduled.

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  By 2026-10-15 · Proposed by a model from the signal; a hypothesis until data decides it

• If the ECB rate hike strengthens the euro, EUR/USD would need to rise above 1.12 within the next 30 days.

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  By 2026-11-07 · Proposed by a model from the signal; a hypothesis until data decides it

Why it matters. The decision changes borrowing costs and monetary conditions across the euro area, affecting households, businesses and financial markets.